Ecological Fallacy

Here is a true statistic: Countries with higher chocolate consumption produce more Nobel Prize winners.

Does this mean you should eat chocolate to win a Nobel Prize?

No. This is the Ecological Fallacy.

The Mistake

The mistake is taking data from a group (a country) and applying it to an individual (you).

Wealthy countries (like Switzerland) have citizens who can afford chocolate. Wealthy countries also have better education systems that produce Nobel laureates.

The correlation exists at the country level, not the person level.

The Rich/Poor Paradox

In the US, "Red" (Republican) states are generally poorer than "Blue" (Democrat) states. So, you might think: "Poor people vote Republican."

But when you look at individuals, the trend reverses. Within many states, richer people are more likely to vote Republican.

The group trend is the opposite of the individual trend.

The Diagnosis

Be careful with maps and averages.

Just because a city has a high crime rate, it doesn't mean every person in that city is a criminal. Just because a school has high test scores, it doesn't mean every student is a genius.