Preregistration

The biggest problem in science is hindsight bias. Once we know the answer, it seems obvious.

Scientists often collect data, look at it, and then invent a hypothesis that fits perfectly. This is cheating.

The Solution: A Time Capsule

Preregistration is the act of posting your study plan on a public website before you collect a single data point.

You must state:

1. What you are testing.
2. How many people you will recruit.
3. Exactly how you will analyze the math.

This is a time capsule. It proves what you thought before you knew the result.

Preventing "Garden of Forking Paths"

Without preregistration, a researcher can try 50 different statistical tests and only report the one that worked.

With preregistration, they are handcuffed. They must run the test they promised. If they run a different one, they must explain why.

The Diagnosis

Preregistration is the badge of an honest scientist.

If a study is not preregistered, it is "exploratory." It is interesting, but it is not proof.