The Replication Crisis

Science is built on a simple promise: if I do X, I get Y. If you do X, you should also get Y. This is replication.

If you cannot replicate a result, it is not a fact. It is an anecdote.

Today, we face a crisis. We cannot replicate the results of major studies. In psychology, medicine, and economics, the foundations are shaking.

The Scale of the Problem

In 2015, the Open Science Collaboration tried to replicate 100 psychology studies. These were famous studies. They were in top journals.

They succeeded in only 36% of cases.

Think about that. More than half of what we thought we knew was wrong. Or at least, unproven.

Why Is This Happening?

It is not always fraud. It is often incompetence. Or perverse incentives.

1. Publication Bias

Journals want new, exciting results. They do not want "We checked Smith's study and he was right." They do not want "We tried this and nothing happened."

So, researchers only publish the exciting anomalies. The boring truth stays in the file drawer.

2. Low Statistical Power

Many studies use sample sizes that are too small. They are like trying to hear a whisper in a thunderstorm. Sometimes, you think you hear words. But it is just noise.

3. The "Publish or Perish" Culture

A scientist's career depends on papers. Not on truth. If you publish, you get grants. You get tenure. If you replicate, you get nothing.

The Diagnosis

The system rewards novelty over accuracy.

We are building a tower of knowledge on a foundation of sand. Until we value replication as much as discovery, we are not doing science. We are doing public relations.