Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method

Early circulation of one influenza strain is associated with a reduced total incidence of the other strains, consistent with the presence of interference between subtypes. Routine ILI and virologic surveillance data can be combined using this new method to predict the relative size of each influenza strain's epidemic by following the change in incidence of a given strain in the context of the incidence of cocirculating strains. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.